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It’s been a while since the tropics have sent a storm like Frank streaking through the Southern California swell window. The way things are stacking up, you might have to go all the way back to Hurricane Rosa in 2018 to get the taste of an event comparable to Frank’s potential.

Frank entered the Southern California swell window as a tropical storm on Thursday and continues to strengthen and become better organized well to the south-southwest of Cabo San Lucas today. The weather model consensus is that Frank will gradually — and potentially rapidly — strengthen on a track to the northwest in the Southern California and Northern Baja swell window through Saturday. The system should reach hurricane strength on Friday and could reach Category 2 status by the time it peaks on Saturday.

Watch Live: Oceanside | The Wedge | Newport Jetties | HB Pier Malibu | Zuma | C St. | Steamer Lane

That sets up a build in SSE/S swell as early as Sunday, shifting SSW/S in direction as it heads towards a peak on Monday that should provide nice size to the bight’s tropical standouts. Light morning winds are in the forecast for next week, accompanying early tide pushes that should set up favorable conditions for most zones.

Senior Forecaster Schaler Perry provides the latest details on the best-looking tropical system we’ve seen so far this season:

“ Confidence on specifics is gradually rising as Frank behaves largely as expected, developing a nice looking fetch in the system’s eastern quadrants. What we really like in Frank’s structure is the elongated swath of 20 to 25-knot winds extending a few hundred+ miles to the south-southeast of the strengthening cyclone. Given Frank’s structure so far, the likelihood for fun-zone+ SSE/S trending SSW tropical swell through the first half of next week is high and there is potential for Frank to deliver the best round of tropical surf in the last several EPAC seasons. Now that isn’t saying much… and Frank ain’t Marie, but as mentioned above we could be on par with the swells from hurricanes Rosa and Sergio if Frank doesn’t fall off the wagon.

Forecasts: North San Diego | South OC | North OC | North LA | Ventura | Santa Cruz

“As it stands, we are eyeing a peak in playful to locally midsize S/SSW swell Monday into Tuesday after a build for select breaks on Sunday. Fun size carries into Wednesday morning, but surf will likely drop off through the day. There’s room for a little more size, but we are staying conservative for the time being. The key to us getting good surf, instead of another relative bust, will be just how well the eastern half of Frank holds together into Saturday.

“Also spinning in the tropics is Tropical Storm Georgette, but in comparison to Frank that system is very small and the primary concern is how it will interact or possibly impede Frank’s progress. As of publishing, Georgette’s influence on Frank looks to remain minimal. C’mon, Frank….. be the tank.”

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